In a recent analysis, Ran Neuner delves into the potential drivers of Bitcoin’s future growth. He identifies three key elements:
Pro-Crypto Administration: Neuner discusses the possible impact of a pro-crypto Trump administration, contrasting it with the current administration’s unfavorable stance towards cryptocurrencies. He highlights figures like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, who have been critical of crypto. Neuner suggests that Trump’s promise to bring Bitcoin back to the US and counter China’s influence could significantly boost Bitcoin’s prospects.
Rate Cut Cycle and Liquidity: Neuner emphasizes the importance of the upcoming rate cut cycle. He references a tweet by Vance Spence, noting that periods of rate cuts and increased liquidity typically benefit assets like gold and Bitcoin. He also mentions Trump’s warning to Jerome Powell about delaying rate cuts until after the elections, which could impact market dynamics.
Catch-Up Trade: Neuner introduces the concept of the “catch-up trade,” noting that Bitcoin, usually correlated with the NASDAQ, has been lagging behind other assets. He attributes this lag to artificial supply dynamics, such as forced selling by the German government and Mt. Gox coin liquidations. Neuner predicts that once these temporary pressures ease, Bitcoin could see a significant upward movement.
